Rizespor 4-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Thursday 9 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 4W 2D 4L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Samsunspor (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Rizespor against 1.10 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 56% versus Samsunspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Samsunspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.29 xG and Samsunspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.917 / defence 1.033 | Samsunspor attack 1.009 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.151. Data: 63 Rizespor games / 63 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 36% | Draw 33% | Samsunspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Samsunspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 30% | Samsunspor 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 36% | Draw 33% | Samsunspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Rizespor 1.29 / Samsunspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.917 / def 1.033 | Samsunspor attack 1.009 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Samsunspor xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 9 April 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Rizespor 4 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Samsunspor part of?
Rizespor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 36% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rizespor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Samsunspor?
Record (5 meetings): Rizespor 2W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 2W.
What form are Rizespor and Samsunspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.92) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.01x) against Rizespor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
36%
2.79
33%
3.06
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.49
1.20
Samsunspor xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.20 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 13D 28L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.59 PPG from 63 outings (27W 19D 17L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Rizespor against 1.59 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 14W 6D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.48 points per game from 31 outings (12W 10D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.37 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 22W 13D 28L in their last 63 games (1.25 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 27W 19D 17L in their last 63 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Samsunspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.55 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Samsunspor won 3-0 on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Samsunspor?
From 7 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Samsunspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Rizespor 0-2 Samsunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 48%, Samsunspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Rizespor) and 52% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 36%; Rizespor have failed to score in 26% of games; Samsunspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Rizespor's recent matches and 52% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Rizespor's recent games and 52% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Samsunspor 4-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.29 xG and Samsunspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Samsunspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 36% | Draw 33% | Samsunspor 31%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Samsunspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.25 PPG, Samsunspor 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.