Rizespor vs Çorum FK Prediction & Preview

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Poisson model rates Çorum FK at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rizespor face Çorum FK.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Çorum FK travel to face Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time.

Current Form

Rizespor's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Rizespor's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rizespor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Çorum FK (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Çorum FK have posted 3W 1D 2L from their last 6 away outings — 1.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Rizespor's last 10 home games and Çorum FK's last 6 away games) — Rizespor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Çorum FK in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Çorum FK edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Oct 2026, ended Rizespor 1–2 Çorum FK — a Çorum FK win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Çorum FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 46% versus Çorum FK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rizespor 54% | Çorum FK 82%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.74 xG and Çorum FK 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.921 / defence 1.327 | Çorum FK attack 1.278 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.317. Çorum FK have an above-average attack rating of 1.278, which lifts their away xG to 2.23. Rizespor's defence rating of 1.327 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Çorum FK's projected output up. Data: built from Rizespor's last 45 games and Çorum FK's last 11.

Result probabilities: Rizespor 31% | Draw 20% | Çorum FK 49%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.28 | Draw 4.94 | Çorum FK 2.03. Çorum FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (1.74 / 2.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Çorum FK as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rizespor's last 10 home games and Çorum FK's last 6 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rizespor 60% (last 10 home games) | Çorum FK 67% (last 6 away games).

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