Rizespor 3-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rizespor face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rizespor's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Konyaspor have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Konyaspor away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Rizespor 1–1 Konyaspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 57% versus Konyaspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Konyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.63 xG and Konyaspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.074 / defence 0.999 | Konyaspor attack 1.061 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.122. Data: built from Rizespor's last 67 games and Konyaspor's last 67.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 45% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.23 | Draw 3.30 | Konyaspor 4.01. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rizespor's last 10 home games and Konyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rizespor 40% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 32 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 45% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Rizespor 1.63 / Konyaspor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.074 / def 0.999 | Konyaspor attack 1.061 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Konyaspor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 1 May 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Rizespor 3 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Konyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 32) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 45% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rizespor and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rizespor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 1.07x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.06x) against Rizespor's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 67 games and Konyaspor's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.30
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.82
1.19
Konyaspor xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
5%
20.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.19 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 67 games, going 24W 14D 29L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.28 PPG from 67 outings (23W 17D 27L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Rizespor against 1.28 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 16W 6D 11L across their last 33 home games, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.91 points per game from their last 33 away games (8W 6D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 63%.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
Rizespor (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Rizespor vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 24W 14D 29L in their last 67 games (1.28 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 23W 17D 27L in their last 67 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Konyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.64 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Rizespor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won Konyaspor 3-0 Rizespor on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Rizespor
3
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 4, Konyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Konyaspor 0-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 52%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rizespor) and 54% (Konyaspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Konyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Rizespor's games and 67% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rizespor and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rizespor's recent games and 54% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Rizespor's recent matches and 76% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Konyaspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Konyaspor 3-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.63 xG and Konyaspor 1.19 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Konyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 45% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 25%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 57%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.28 PPG, Konyaspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.