Rizespor 2-0 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Rizespor take on Kocaelispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu plays host to Rizespor versus Kocaelispor in Süper Lig (matchday 23). Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Rizespor have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kocaelispor have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Kocaelispor's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Kocaelispor are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Rizespor 1–1 Kocaelispor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kocaelispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 30% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 59% versus Kocaelispor 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 54% | Kocaelispor 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.19 xG and Kocaelispor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.863 / defence 1.087 | Kocaelispor attack 0.735 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.334. Kocaelispor's attack rating of 0.735 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from Rizespor's last 58 games and Kocaelispor's last 22.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 35% | Draw 37% | Kocaelispor 29%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.87 | Draw 2.73 | Kocaelispor 3.50. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rizespor 40% (last 10 home games) | Kocaelispor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 35% | Draw 37% | Kocaelispor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Rizespor 1.19 / Kocaelispor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.863 / def 1.087 | Kocaelispor attack 0.735 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Kocaelispor xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Kocaelispor FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Rizespor vs Kocaelispor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 20 February 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Kocaelispor?
Rizespor 2 - 0 Kocaelispor.
Where is Rizespor vs Kocaelispor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Kocaelispor part of?
Rizespor vs Kocaelispor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 35% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rizespor and Kocaelispor will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Rizespor vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Kocaelispor's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Kocaelispor's attack (0.73x) against Rizespor's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 58 games and Kocaelispor's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.87
37%
2.73
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.26
1.07
Kocaelispor xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Kocaelispor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.07 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Kocaelispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Rizespor have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 4W 9D 9L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Kocaelispor's form line: 8W 6D 8L from 22 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Kocaelispor are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rizespor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.10 PPG from their last 10 home games (3W 2D 5L).
On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kocaelispor's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 0.95 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Kocaelispor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Kocaelispor
Blended
Rizespor (Home) vs Kocaelispor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Blended
Kocaelispor
Blended
❓ Rizespor vs Kocaelispor Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 4W 9D 9L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 8W 6D 8L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Kocaelispor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.10 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Rizespor
2
Draws
0
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Kocaelispor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kocaelispor?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 1, Kocaelispor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Kocaelispor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Kocaelispor 0-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Kocaelispor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Kocaelispor's games tend to start slowly — only 30% have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 40%, Kocaelispor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rizespor) and 40% (Kocaelispor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 30% of games; Kocaelispor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Kocaelispor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Kocaelispor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rizespor's recent matches and 50% of Kocaelispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and Kocaelispor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rizespor's recent games and 40% of Kocaelispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Kocaelispor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Rizespor's recent matches and 30% of Kocaelispor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kocaelispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Kocaelispor 2-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.19 xG and Kocaelispor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kocaelispor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Kocaelispor attack 0.73 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 35% | Draw 37% | Kocaelispor 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 54%, Kocaelispor 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Kocaelispor's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kocaelispor arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Rizespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.