Rizespor 0-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host Kasımpaşa at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 4W 4D 2L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rizespor at 0.90 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Rizespor have won 1, Kasımpaşa 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 44% versus Kasımpaşa 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Kasımpaşa 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.27 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.847 / defence 1.192 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.951 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.325. Data: 41 Rizespor games / 41 Kasımpaşa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 31% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 41%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 40% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 31% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Rizespor 1.27 / Kasımpaşa 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.847 / def 1.192 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.951 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Kasımpaşa xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Rizespor 0 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 31% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rizespor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (4 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 2 | Kasımpaşa 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa in?
Rizespor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (41/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
31%
3.26
28%
3.53
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.77
1.50
Kasımpaşa xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
7%
14.66
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.50 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Rizespor have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 15W 9D 17L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 16W 10D 15L from 41 games, 1.41 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.32 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.90 PPG from 20 outings (11W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 5D 8L from 20 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.63 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 68%.
Last 41 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 15W 9D 17L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Rizespor's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.90 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2026, when Rizespor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rizespor
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 2, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 35%, Kasımpaşa 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Rizespor) and 60% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Rizespor's recent matches and 65% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Rizespor's recent games and 60% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Rizespor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Rizespor 0-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.27 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.50 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rizespor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.85 / defence 1.19 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 31% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 41%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Kasımpaşa 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.32 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.