🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Rizespor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 36 as Rizespor welcome Göztepe to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Göztepe — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Göztepe have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rizespor at 1.30 PPG versus Göztepe's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rizespor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Göztepe in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Rizespor, 1 for Göztepe and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Göztepe winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Rizespor trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Göztepe trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 54% versus Göztepe 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 54% | Göztepe 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.57 xG and Göztepe 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.936 / defence 0.914 | Göztepe attack 0.812 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.249. Data: 71 Rizespor games / 33 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rizespor 52% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 22%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Göztepe 4.55. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rizespor 60% | Göztepe 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights