Rizespor 1-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rizespor at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu plays host to Rizespor versus Gençlerbirliği S.K. in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Monday 15 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. have collected 0.00 PPG across 4 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 0D 4L. Last five: L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Gençlerbirliği S.K. have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Rizespor's 1.60 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Rizespor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Gençlerbirliği S.K. in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rizespor 50% and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rizespor 75% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.82 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.107 / defence 1.163 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.830 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.261. Gençlerbirliği S.K. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Rizespor games / 4 Gençlerbirliği S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 51% | Draw 25% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 25%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 4.00. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 60% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 15 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 51% | Draw 25% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Rizespor 1.82 / Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.107 / def 1.163 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.830 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. kick off?
Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 15 September 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Rizespor 1 - 0 Gençlerbirliği S.K..
Where is Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. part of?
Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 51% chance of winning, Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rizespor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. in?
Rizespor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (1.11) and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack (0.83x) against Rizespor's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 39/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
51%
1.98
25%
4.02
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.04
1.22
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
4%
25.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.22 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gençlerbirliği S.K., meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 4L across 4 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Gençlerbirliği S.K., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rizespor by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gençlerbirliği S.K. heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Gençlerbirliği S.K. are on 0.75 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gençlerbirliği S.K. in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Gençlerbirliği S.K. have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rizespor
1
Draws
0
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
From 2 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 50%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Rizespor and 75% for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Gençlerbirliği S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Rizespor's games and 75% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Rizespor's matches and 75% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s.
Do Rizespor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Gençlerbirliği S.K. in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.82 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.22 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rizespor fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Gençlerbirliği S.K. landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.83 / defence 1.24, drawn from 39/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 51% | Draw 25% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 25%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 75%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Rizespor conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Gençlerbirliği S.K. conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.