Rizespor 2-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gaziantep FK make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Monday 13 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rizespor's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gaziantep FK's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Rizespor. A 0.50 PPG lead over Gaziantep FK (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Rizespor, 4 for Gaziantep FK and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Rizespor 2–2 Gaziantep FK — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 56% versus Gaziantep FK 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Gaziantep FK 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.80 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.092 / defence 0.996 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.059 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.181. Data: built from Rizespor's last 64 games and Gaziantep FK's last 64.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 48% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 24%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.09 | Draw 3.53 | Gaziantep FK 4.18. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rizespor's last 10 home games and Gaziantep FK's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rizespor 30% (last 10 home games) | Gaziantep FK 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 29 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 13 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 48% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Rizespor 1.80 / Gaziantep FK 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.092 / def 0.996 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.059 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Gaziantep FK xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 13 April 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK?
Rizespor 2 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 29) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 48% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Rizespor and Gaziantep FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 1.09x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (1.06x) against Rizespor's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 64 games and Gaziantep FK's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.53
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.04
1.25
Gaziantep FK xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
4%
25.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.25 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor's recent record stands at 23W 13D 28L from 64 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Gaziantep FK, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 25L across 64 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Rizespor against 1.23 for Gaziantep FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 15W 6D 11L from their last 32 home games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gaziantep FK's away record stands at 6W 10D 16L across their last 32 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.28 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gaziantep FK in 61%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Current Season
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Rizespor (Home) vs Gaziantep FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Current Season
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
❓ Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 23W 13D 28L in their last 64 games (1.28 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 20W 19D 25L in their last 64 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Rizespor's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.59 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Rizespor and Gaziantep FK, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Rizespor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Rizespor
1
Draws
4
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Gaziantep FK?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 4, Gaziantep FK have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Gaziantep FK 1-2 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 50%, Gaziantep FK 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rizespor) and 69% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Gaziantep FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Gaziantep FK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Rizespor's games and 66% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rizespor and Gaziantep FK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Rizespor's matches and 69% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Rizespor and Gaziantep FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Rizespor's recent matches and 66% of Gaziantep FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Gaziantep FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Gaziantep FK 2-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.80 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.25 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 48% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 24%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Gaziantep FK 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.28 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.