Rizespor 0-5 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 37%, yet in-form Fenerbahçe provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Fenerbahçe meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fenerbahçe are 1.20 PPG clear of Rizespor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Fenerbahçe, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 45% versus Fenerbahçe 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 55% | Fenerbahçe 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.35 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.971 / defence 0.870 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.161 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.278. Data: 40 Rizespor games / 40 Fenerbahçe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 37% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 34%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Fenerbahçe 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fenerbahçe (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 40% | Fenerbahçe 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 37% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Rizespor 1.35 / Fenerbahçe 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.971 / def 0.870 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.161 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Fenerbahçe xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Rizespor 0 - 5 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 37% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rizespor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (4 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 4W.
What form are Rizespor and Fenerbahçe in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.97x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.16x) against Rizespor's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
37%
2.71
29%
3.45
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.64
1.29
Fenerbahçe xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.29 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor's recent record stands at 15W 9D 16L from 40 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 32W 7D 1L across 40 games — 2.58 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.23 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 11W 6D 3L from 20 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 16W 4D 0L across 20 trips, a 2.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.55 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 32W 7D 1L in their last 40 (2.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.95 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-6 on 22 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Rizespor
1
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Fenerbahçe 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 35%, Fenerbahçe 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rizespor) and 45% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Rizespor's recent matches and 40% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rizespor's recent games and 45% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Rizespor 0-5 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.35 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.29 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.29 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.97 / defence 0.87 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.16 / defence 0.91, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 37% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 34%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Fenerbahçe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 55%, Fenerbahçe 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.