Rizespor 3-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Rizespor take on Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host Eyüpspor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rizespor have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rizespor 1.00 PPG, Eyüpspor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Rizespor, 0 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Rizespor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 59% versus Eyüpspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 55% | Eyüpspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.00 xG and Eyüpspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.847 / defence 1.139 | Eyüpspor attack 0.710 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.318. Data: 51 Rizespor games / 51 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 29% | Draw 38% | Eyüpspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Eyüpspor 3.12. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Eyüpspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 29% | Draw 38% | Eyüpspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 46% | xG Rizespor 1.00 / Eyüpspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.847 / def 1.139 | Eyüpspor attack 0.710 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Eyüpspor xG
46%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Rizespor 3 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Rizespor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 29% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 32% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rizespor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Eyüpspor?
Record (2 meetings): Rizespor 2W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Rizespor and Eyüpspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.85) and Eyüpspor's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.43
38%
2.61
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.07
1.07
Eyüpspor xG
3.43
29%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.07 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor come into this having played 51 games, going 18W 10D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.29 PPG from 51 outings (18W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.25 PPG, Eyüpspor on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rizespor's home form reads 11W 4D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (6W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.22 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 18W 10D 23L in their last 51 games (1.25 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.48 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Eyüpspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2026, when Eyüpspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Rizespor
0
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Eyüpspor 4-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Eyüpspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 52%, Eyüpspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rizespor) and 40% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 28% of games; Eyüpspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Rizespor's recent matches and 48% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rizespor's recent games and 40% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Eyüpspor 3-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.00 xG and Eyüpspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eyüpspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.85 / defence 1.14 against Eyüpspor attack 0.71 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 29% | Draw 38% | Eyüpspor 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 55%, Eyüpspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.25 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.