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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Bodrum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Çaykur Didi Stadyumu plays host to Rizespor versus Bodrum FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 10:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Rizespor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rizespor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bodrum FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Bodrum FK have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Rizespor against 1.30 for Bodrum FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Rizespor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Bodrum FK half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 62% versus Bodrum FK 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 65% | Bodrum FK 27%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.72 xG and Bodrum FK 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.108 / defence 1.054 | Bodrum FK attack 0.609 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.184. Data: 64 Rizespor games / 26 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rizespor 60% | Draw 24% | Bodrum FK 16%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Bodrum FK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Rizespor (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 70% | Bodrum FK 30%.

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