Rizespor 2-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Beşiktaş meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Beşiktaş's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Rizespor against 1.60 for Beşiktaş. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Beşiktaş have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Rizespor's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Beşiktaş winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beşiktaş have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 56% versus Beşiktaş 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 58% | Beşiktaş 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.34 xG and Beşiktaş 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.130 / defence 1.058 | Beşiktaş attack 1.213 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.131. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 Rizespor games / 69 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 32% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 37%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Beşiktaş 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 50% | Beşiktaş 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 32% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Rizespor 1.34 / Beşiktaş 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.130 / def 1.058 | Beşiktaş attack 1.213 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Beşiktaş xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Rizespor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 15 May 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Rizespor 2 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Rizespor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 32% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rizespor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
Record (7 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 2 | Beşiktaş 4W.
What form are Rizespor and Beşiktaş in?
Rizespor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 1.13x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.21x) against Rizespor's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
32%
3.16
31%
3.19
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.45
Beşiktaş xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
7%
13.47
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.45 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor come into this having played 69 games, going 25W 14D 30L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.75 PPG from 69 outings (34W 19D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Rizespor's home form reads 17W 6D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.62 points per game from 34 outings (14W 13D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.68 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 61%.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 25W 14D 30L in their last 69 games (1.29 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 34W 19D 16L in their last 69 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Rizespor's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.68 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 0-4 on 9 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Rizespor 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 53%, Beşiktaş 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Rizespor) and 35% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Rizespor's recent matches and 53% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Rizespor's recent games and 35% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, as Rizespor and Beşiktaş drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.34 xG and Beşiktaş 1.45 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.13 / defence 1.06 against Beşiktaş attack 1.21 / defence 0.79, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 32% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 37%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 58%, Beşiktaş 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.