Rizespor 0-4 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Beşiktaş meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 9 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 6W 2D 1L from 9 Süper Lig appearances (2.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Rizespor against 1.30 for Beşiktaş. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 50% versus Beşiktaş 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 44% | Beşiktaş 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.68 xG and Beşiktaş 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.101 / defence 0.883 | Beşiktaş attack 1.211 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.248. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Rizespor games / 54 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 44% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 29%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Beşiktaş 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 33% | Beşiktaş 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 44% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Rizespor 1.68 / Beşiktaş 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.101 / def 0.883 | Beşiktaş attack 1.211 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Beşiktaş xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Rizespor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 9 January 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Rizespor 0 - 4 Beşiktaş.
Where is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Rizespor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 44% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rizespor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
Record (2 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Beşiktaş in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 1.10x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.21x) against Rizespor's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 18/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.79
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.01
1.33
Beşiktaş xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
5%
18.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.33 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor come into this having played 18 games, going 8W 5D 5L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (9W 2D 7L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Rizespor against 1.61 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rizespor's home form reads 6W 2D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.44 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 games (1.61 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 9W 2D 7L in their last 18 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Rizespor's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 2.22 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 0-4 on 9 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Rizespor 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 33%, Beşiktaş 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Rizespor) and 67% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rizespor's recent matches and 67% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Rizespor's recent games and 67% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Rizespor 0-4 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.68 xG and Beşiktaş 1.33 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.33 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.10 / defence 0.88 against Beşiktaş attack 1.21 / defence 1.02, drawn from 18/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 44% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 29%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 44%, Beşiktaş 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.61 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.