Rizespor 1-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 37%, yet in-form Başakşehir provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rizespor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Başakşehir travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor. The game is scheduled for Monday 12 August 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rizespor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Rizespor's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Başakşehir haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rizespor, 3 for Başakşehir and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 42% versus Başakşehir 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 55% | Başakşehir 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.44 xG and Başakşehir 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.031 / defence 0.905 | Başakşehir attack 1.223 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.236. Başakşehir have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Rizespor games / 38 Başakşehir games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 37% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 33%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Başakşehir 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Başakşehir (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 30% | Başakşehir 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 12 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 37% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Rizespor 1.44 / Başakşehir 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.031 / def 0.905 | Başakşehir attack 1.223 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Başakşehir xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Rizespor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 12 August 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Rizespor 1 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Rizespor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Başakşehir part of?
Rizespor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 37% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rizespor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
Record (4 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 3W.
What form are Rizespor and Başakşehir in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 1.03x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
37%
2.71
30%
3.37
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.81
1.37
Başakşehir xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.37 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor's recent record stands at 14W 8D 16L from 38 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. Rizespor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 13L across 38 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. Başakşehir haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.32 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 11W 5D 3L from 19 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 8W 4D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.50 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Pre-Season
Başakşehir
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 14W 8D 16L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 18W 7D 13L in their last 38 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Başakşehir away?
Rizespor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 2.00 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Başakşehir runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Başakşehir won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Başakşehir have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 32%, Başakşehir 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Rizespor) and 42% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Başakşehir in 32%; Rizespor have failed to score in 26% of games; Başakşehir in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Rizespor's recent matches and 42% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Rizespor's recent games and 42% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor and Başakşehir share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor and Başakşehir finished level at 1-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.44 xG and Başakşehir 1.37 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.03 / defence 0.91 against Başakşehir attack 1.22 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 37% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 33%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 55%, Başakşehir 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.32 PPG, Başakşehir 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.