Rizespor 3-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 49%, yet in-form Alanyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rizespor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alanyaspor travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 10:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Rizespor have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rizespor at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Alanyaspor stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Alanyaspor away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Alanyaspor's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Rizespor's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Rizespor, 3 for Alanyaspor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Rizespor 0–1 Alanyaspor — a Alanyaspor win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Rizespor trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 48% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 58% | Alanyaspor 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rizespor surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Alanyaspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.44 xG and Alanyaspor 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.025 / defence 1.041 | Alanyaspor attack 0.712 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.194. Alanyaspor's attack rating of 0.712 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Rizespor's last 62 games and Alanyaspor's last 62.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 49% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.04 | Draw 3.43 | Alanyaspor 4.57. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alanyaspor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rizespor 60% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 26 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 49% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Rizespor 1.44 / Alanyaspor 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.025 / def 1.041 | Alanyaspor attack 0.712 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Alanyaspor xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Rizespor 3 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 26) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 49% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rizespor and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Rizespor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rizespor's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 62 games and Alanyaspor's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.43
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.33
0.89
Alanyaspor xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
5%
19.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.89 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor come into this having played 62 games, going 23W 11D 28L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.34 PPG from 62 outings (20W 23D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.29 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rizespor's home form reads 15W 8D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 1.77 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 11D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.31 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Rizespor (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Rizespor vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 23W 11D 28L in their last 62 games (1.29 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 20W 23D 19L in their last 62 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.77 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rizespor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Alanyaspor?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Rizespor 0-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 43%, Alanyaspor 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Rizespor) and 37% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 27% of games; Alanyaspor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Rizespor's recent matches and 47% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Rizespor's recent games and 37% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Rizespor's recent matches and 70% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Alanyaspor 3-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.44 xG and Alanyaspor 0.89 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Alanyaspor attack 0.71 / defence 0.88, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 49% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 22%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 58%, Alanyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.29 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.