🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Rizespor at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Çaykur Didi Stadyumu plays host to Rizespor versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 10:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Rizespor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 3W 4D 3L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Rizespor's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Rizespor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 44% versus Adana Demirspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 54% | Adana Demirspor 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.75 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.935 / defence 0.961 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.908 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.197. Data: 57 Rizespor games / 57 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rizespor 52% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Adana Demirspor 5.00. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Adana Demirspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights