Pendikspor 0-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 26 as Pendikspor welcome Trabzonspor to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pendikspor stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pendikspor's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pendikspor 1.30 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Pendikspor, 1 for Trabzonspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pendikspor trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Trabzonspor trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 68% and Trabzonspor 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 52% | Trabzonspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.46 xG and Trabzonspor 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 1.018 / defence 1.160 | Trabzonspor attack 1.062 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.176. Data: 25 Pendikspor games / 60 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 35% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Trabzonspor 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pendikspor 50% | Trabzonspor 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 35% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Pendikspor 1.46 / Trabzonspor 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 1.018 / def 1.160 | Trabzonspor attack 1.062 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Trabzonspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor?
Pendikspor 0 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 35% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Pendikspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (1 meetings): Pendikspor 0W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Pendikspor and Trabzonspor in?
Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pendikspor's attack at 1.02x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Pendikspor's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pendikspor Win
35%
2.82
30%
3.34
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
2.91
1.45
Trabzonspor xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Pendikspor and 1.45 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pendikspor's recent record stands at 6W 8D 11L from 25 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 9L across 25 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pendikspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pendikspor have managed 4W 3D 5L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 5W 3D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pendikspor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.56 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pendikspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 games (1.04 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 12W 4D 9L in their last 25 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 1.25 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pendikspor and Trabzonspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pendikspor
0
Draws
2
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Trabzonspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Pendikspor have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Pendikspor 0-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Pendikspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 58%, Trabzonspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pendikspor) and 50% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pendikspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Pendikspor's games and 58% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pendikspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pendikspor's recent games and 50% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Pendikspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Pendikspor 0-2 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.46 xG and Trabzonspor 1.45 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pendikspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Trabzonspor attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 25/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 35% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 35%, with Pendikspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 52%, Trabzonspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Pendikspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.