Pendikspor 2-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 41%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pendikspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to face Pendikspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pendikspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pendikspor at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pendikspor are significantly better at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rizespor's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rizespor are 0.60 PPG clear of Pendikspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Pendikspor 0W, Rizespor 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2023, ended 1–5 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pendikspor — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Rizespor — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pendikspor 66% versus Rizespor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 54% | Rizespor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.75 xG and Rizespor 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.818 / defence 1.295 | Rizespor attack 0.962 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.234. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing Pendikspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Pendikspor games / 35 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 41% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 32%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Rizespor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pendikspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pendikspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pendikspor 50% | Rizespor 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 41% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Pendikspor 1.75 / Rizespor 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.818 / def 1.295 | Rizespor attack 0.962 / def 1.378 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Pendikspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Rizespor xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pendikspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Pendikspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Rizespor?
Pendikspor 2 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Pendikspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Rizespor part of?
Pendikspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 41% chance of winning, Rizespor a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pendikspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Pendikspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Pendikspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Rizespor?
Record (1 meetings): Pendikspor 0W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Pendikspor and Rizespor in?
Pendikspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pendikspor's attack rating (0.82) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.96x) against Pendikspor's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pendikspor Win
41%
2.41
26%
3.84
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
3.29
1.54
Rizespor xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
6%
17.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Pendikspor and 1.54 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pendikspor come into this having played 35 games, going 8W 9D 18L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.40 PPG from 35 outings (14W 7D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Rizespor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Pendikspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pendikspor's home form reads 5W 3D 9L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.71 points per game from 17 outings (3W 3D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Attack vs Defence
Pendikspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.34 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pendikspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 8W 9D 18L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 14W 7D 14L in their last 35 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Rizespor away?
Pendikspor's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 1.06 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Pendikspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pendikspor have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Rizespor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pendikspor
0
Draws
1
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Rizespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Pendikspor have won 1, Rizespor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Pendikspor 2-1 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 53%, Rizespor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pendikspor) and 71% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pendikspor have failed to score in 29% of games; Rizespor in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pendikspor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 53% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pendikspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Pendikspor's matches and 71% of Rizespor's.
Do Pendikspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Pendikspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pendikspor edge out Rizespor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pendikspor beat Rizespor 2-1 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.75 xG and Rizespor 1.54 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against Rizespor attack 0.96 / defence 1.38, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 41% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 32%, with Pendikspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 54%, Rizespor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Pendikspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pendikspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.