Pendikspor 3-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 22 as Pendikspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pendikspor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pendikspor's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Pendikspor) versus 1.10 (Kasımpaşa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Pendikspor, 0 for Kasımpaşa and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pendikspor trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Kasımpaşa trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 67% and Kasımpaşa 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 52% | Kasımpaşa 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.52 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.869 / defence 1.105 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.105 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.240. Data: 21 Pendikspor games / 57 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 36% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 36%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pendikspor 50% | Kasımpaşa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 36% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Pendikspor 1.52 / Kasımpaşa 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.869 / def 1.105 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.105 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Kasımpaşa xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Pendikspor 3 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 36% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (1 meetings): Pendikspor 0W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Pendikspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pendikspor's attack at 0.87x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Pendikspor's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pendikspor Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.53
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
3.04
1.51
Kasımpaşa xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.60
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Pendikspor and 1.51 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pendikspor's recent record stands at 4W 7D 10L from 21 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 8L across 21 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kasımpaşa by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pendikspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pendikspor have managed 2W 3D 5L from 10 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pendikspor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.71 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Kasımpaşa in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 4W 7D 10L in their last 21 games (0.90 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Kasımpaşa's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 0.90 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pendikspor
1
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 2 meetings on record, Pendikspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2024, when Pendikspor 3-2 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa?
Pendikspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 50%, Kasımpaşa 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pendikspor) and 60% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Pendikspor have failed to score in 30% of games; Kasımpaşa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pendikspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pendikspor's games and 60% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pendikspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pendikspor's recent games and 60% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Pendikspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pendikspor edge out Kasımpaşa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pendikspor beat Kasımpaşa 3-2 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.52 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.51 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Pendikspor beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.10 / defence 1.17, drawn from 21/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 36% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 36%, with Pendikspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 52%, Kasımpaşa 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Pendikspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pendikspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.