Pendikspor 0-2 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Galatasaray at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pendikspor vs Galatasaray encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Galatasaray make the trip to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to face Pendikspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pendikspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pendikspor's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 games at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu this term (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Galatasaray (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Galatasaray's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Galatasaray arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Pendikspor — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Galatasaray — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 77% and Galatasaray 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 62% | Galatasaray 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 0.75 xG and Galatasaray 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.736 / defence 1.583 | Galatasaray attack 1.129 / defence 0.652. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.223. Pendikspor's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Galatasaray's defence strength of 0.652 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 13 Pendikspor games / 49 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 10% | Draw 21% | Galatasaray 69%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 10.00 | Draw 4.76 | Galatasaray 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (69%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pendikspor 67% | Galatasaray 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 10% | Draw 21% | Galatasaray 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 48% | xG Pendikspor 0.75 / Galatasaray 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.736 / def 1.583 | Galatasaray attack 1.129 / def 0.652 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
2.19
Galatasaray xG
48%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pendikspor vs Galatasaray kick off?
Pendikspor vs Galatasaray kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Galatasaray?
Pendikspor 0 - 2 Galatasaray.
Where is Pendikspor vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Galatasaray part of?
Pendikspor vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 10% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 69% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pendikspor and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Pendikspor vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Galatasaray?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pendikspor and Galatasaray in?
Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Galatasaray (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pendikspor's attack rating (0.74) and Galatasaray's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Galatasaray's attack (1.13x) against Pendikspor's defence (1.58x) — and the away total comes out at 2.19.
These ratings are built from 13/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 1-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
10%
9.70
21%
4.86
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
2.94
2.19
Galatasaray xG
9.70
10%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
11%
8.89
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
1%
86.23
33%
3.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Pendikspor and 2.19 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Galatasaray?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pendikspor's recent record stands at 3W 4D 6L from 13 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Galatasaray, meanwhile, have gone 11W 1D 1L across 13 games — 2.62 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Galatasaray by 1.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pendikspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pendikspor have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Galatasaray's away record stands at 5W 0D 1L across 6 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pendikspor are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.23 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 2.00 scored and 0.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Defensively: Galatasaray in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Blended
Galatasaray
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pendikspor and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 11W 1D 1L in their last 13 (2.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 0.83 PPG; Galatasaray away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Pendikspor or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pendikspor have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pendikspor
0
Draws
2
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Galatasaray?
From 2 meetings on record, Pendikspor have won 0, Galatasaray have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Galatasaray 4-1 Pendikspor.
Who has won more matches between Pendikspor and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 67%, Galatasaray 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pendikspor) and 50% (Galatasaray).
On the defensive side: Galatasaray in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pendikspor play Galatasaray?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 33% of Galatasaray's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pendikspor vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pendikspor's recent games and 50% of Galatasaray's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Pendikspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Galatasaray cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Pendikspor 0-2 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 0.75 xG and Galatasaray 2.19 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.58 against Galatasaray attack 1.13 / defence 0.65, drawn from 13/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 10% | Draw 21% | Galatasaray 69%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 62%, Galatasaray 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Galatasaray's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Pendikspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.