Pendikspor 4-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to face Pendikspor in Süper Lig (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Pendikspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Pendikspor have posted 1W 3D 5L from their last 9 home games — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beşiktaş (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Beşiktaş arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Pendikspor 1–1 Beşiktaş — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Pendikspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 70% and Beşiktaş 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 50% | Beşiktaş 60%). Note also that Beşiktaş surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Pendikspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 0.87 xG and Beşiktaş 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.624 / defence 1.297 | Beşiktaş attack 1.431 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.223. Pendikspor's attack rating of 0.624 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack rating of 1.431, which lifts their away xG to 2.27. Pendikspor's defence rating of 1.297 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beşiktaş's projected output up. Data: built from Pendikspor's last 20 games and Beşiktaş's last 56.
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 11% | Draw 21% | Beşiktaş 67%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 8.72 | Draw 4.73 | Beşiktaş 1.48. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (67%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pendikspor's last 9 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pendikspor 56% (last 9 home games) | Beşiktaş 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 21 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 11% | Draw 21% | Beşiktaş 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Pendikspor 0.87 / Beşiktaş 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.624 / def 1.297 | Beşiktaş attack 1.431 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Beşiktaş xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş FAQs
What time does Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş?
Pendikspor 4 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 21) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 11% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 67% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pendikspor and Beşiktaş will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pendikspor's attack rating (0.62) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.43x) against Pendikspor's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 2.27.
These ratings are built from Pendikspor's last 20 games and Beşiktaş's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
11%
8.72
21%
4.73
67%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
3.14
2.27
Beşiktaş xG
8.72
11%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
1.48
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
10%
9.68
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
1%
84.39
28%
3.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Pendikspor and 2.27 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Pendikspor have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 3W 7D 10L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Beşiktaş's form line: 11W 2D 7L from 20 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pendikspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pendikspor have posted 0.67 PPG from their last 9 home games (1W 3D 5L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 4W 1D 4L from their last 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pendikspor are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.65 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
Pendikspor (Home) vs Beşiktaş (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pendikspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş Form FAQs
What form are Pendikspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 3W 7D 10L in their last 20 games (0.80 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 11W 2D 7L in their last 20 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 0.67 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Pendikspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pendikspor have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pendikspor
1
Draws
0
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Beşiktaş?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Pendikspor have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 January 2024: Pendikspor 4-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Pendikspor and Beşiktaş?
Pendikspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 56%, Beşiktaş 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pendikspor) and 78% (Beşiktaş). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pendikspor have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pendikspor and Beşiktaş matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Pendikspor's games and 67% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pendikspor and Beşiktaş matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Pendikspor's matches and 78% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Pendikspor and Beşiktaş matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 100% of Beşiktaş's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pendikspor run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pendikspor beat Beşiktaş 4-0 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 0.87 xG and Beşiktaş 2.27 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Pendikspor beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beşiktaş landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.62 / defence 1.30 against Beşiktaş attack 1.43 / defence 0.93, drawn from 20/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 11% | Draw 21% | Beşiktaş 67%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Pendikspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 50%, Beşiktaş 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Pendikspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pendikspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.