Pendikspor 4-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pendikspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.

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Analysis

Beşiktaş make the trip to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to face Pendikspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Pendikspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Pendikspor have posted 1W 3D 5L at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Beşiktaş (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Beşiktaş arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pendikspor, 0 for Beşiktaş and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Pendikspor half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 70% and Beşiktaş 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 50% | Beşiktaş 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 0.87 xG and Beşiktaş 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.624 / defence 1.297 | Beşiktaş attack 1.431 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.223. Pendikspor's attack strength of 0.624 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Pendikspor games / 56 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pendikspor 11% | Draw 21% | Beşiktaş 67%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 9.09 | Draw 4.76 | Beşiktaş 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pendikspor 56% | Beşiktaş 60% BTTS from recent games.

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