Pendikspor 2-3 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pendikspor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Başakşehir travel to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to take on Pendikspor in Süper Lig (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pendikspor stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Pendikspor have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Pendikspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Başakşehir have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Başakşehir have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Pendikspor have won 0, Başakşehir 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Nov 2023, ended Pendikspor 1–4 Başakşehir — a Başakşehir win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pendikspor in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pendikspor 61% versus Başakşehir 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 48% | Başakşehir 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.09 xG and Başakşehir 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.816 / defence 1.149 | Başakşehir attack 1.016 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.195. Data: built from Pendikspor's last 31 games and Başakşehir's last 67.
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 27% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 42%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 3.69 | Draw 3.20 | Başakşehir 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pendikspor 30% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 32 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 27% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Pendikspor 1.09 / Başakşehir 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.816 / def 1.149 | Başakşehir attack 1.016 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Başakşehir xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pendikspor vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Pendikspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Pendikspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Başakşehir?
Pendikspor 2 - 3 Başakşehir.
Where is Pendikspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Pendikspor vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 32) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 27% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pendikspor and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pendikspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pendikspor's attack at 0.82x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Pendikspor's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pendikspor's last 31 games and Başakşehir's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
27%
3.69
31%
3.20
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
2.49
1.40
Başakşehir xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
14.89
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pendikspor vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Pendikspor and 1.40 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Pendikspor have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 7W 9D 15L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 12W 7D 12L from 31 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pendikspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pendikspor have posted 1.20 PPG from their last 15 home games (5W 3D 7L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 4W 4D 7L from their last 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Pendikspor are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.26 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
Pendikspor (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pendikspor
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Pendikspor vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Pendikspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 7W 9D 15L in their last 31 games (0.97 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 12W 7D 12L in their last 31 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Pendikspor's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 1.20 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Pendikspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pendikspor have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 14 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pendikspor
0
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Pendikspor vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Başakşehir?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Pendikspor have won 0, Başakşehir have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 April 2024: Pendikspor 2-3 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Pendikspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 47%, Başakşehir 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pendikspor) and 33% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 33%; Pendikspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Başakşehir in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pendikspor vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pendikspor and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 33% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pendikspor and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pendikspor's recent games and 33% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 60% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Pendikspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Pendikspor 2-3 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.09 xG and Başakşehir 1.40 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Pendikspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Başakşehir outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.15 against Başakşehir attack 1.02 / defence 0.92, drawn from 31/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 27% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 42%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 48%, Başakşehir 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Pendikspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.