Çorum FK vs Samsunspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Çorum FK at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Çorum FK vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Corum Stadyumu to face Çorum FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Çorum FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Çorum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Çorum FK at Corum Stadyumu this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Samsunspor (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Çorum FK's 1.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Samsunspor's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Çorum FK, 0 for Samsunspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 5–1 with Çorum FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Çorum FK — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Çorum FK 60% versus Samsunspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Çorum FK 80% | Samsunspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 1.91 xG and Samsunspor 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.895 / defence 1.082 | Samsunspor attack 0.930 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Samsunspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Çorum FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Çorum FK games / 44 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Çorum FK 53% | Draw 22% | Samsunspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Samsunspor 4.00. Çorum FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Çorum FK at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Çorum FK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Çorum FK 50% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Çorum FK vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Corum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Çorum FK 53% | Draw 22% | Samsunspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Çorum FK 1.91 / Samsunspor 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Çorum FK attack 0.895 / def 1.082 | Samsunspor attack 0.930 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Çorum FK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Çorum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Samsunspor xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Çorum FK vs Samsunspor kick off?
Çorum FK vs Samsunspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Corum Stadyumu.
Where is Çorum FK vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Corum Stadyumu.
What competition is Çorum FK vs Samsunspor part of?
Çorum FK vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Çorum FK vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Çorum FK a 53% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Çorum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Çorum FK vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Çorum FK and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Çorum FK vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Samsunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Çorum FK 1W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 0W.
What form are Çorum FK and Samsunspor in?
Çorum FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Çorum FK's attack rating (0.90) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.93x) against Çorum FK's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Çorum FK Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.49
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Çorum FK xG
Total xG
3.17
1.26
Samsunspor xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
4%
26.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Çorum FK vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Çorum FK and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Çorum FK and 1.26 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Çorum FK vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Çorum FK have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 5W 1D 4L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Çorum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor's form line: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games, 0.40 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Çorum FK are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Samsunspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Çorum FK have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Çorum FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Çorum FK are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.00 scored and 2.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Çorum FK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Çorum FK
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Çorum FK and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Çorum FK have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 (0.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Çorum FK at home or Samsunspor away?
Çorum FK's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Çorum FK at home: 1.50 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Çorum FK
0
Draws
0
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Samsunspor?
From 1 meetings on record, Çorum FK have won 1, Samsunspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Çorum FK and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Samsunspor 1-5 Çorum FK.
Who has won more matches between Çorum FK and Samsunspor?
Çorum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Çorum FK 50%, Samsunspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Çorum FK and 50% for Samsunspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Çorum FK home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Çorum FK play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Çorum FK's recent matches and 50% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Çorum FK vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Çorum FK's matches and 50% of Samsunspor's.
Do Çorum FK and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Çorum FK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.