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Poisson model rates Çorum FK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Çorum FK vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Rizespor make the trip to Corum Stadyumu to face Çorum FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rizespor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Rizespor's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 1.49 xG and Rizespor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Rizespor attack 0.979 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 0 Çorum FK games / 34 Rizespor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Çorum FK 40% | Draw 29% | Rizespor 31%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Rizespor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Çorum FK as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Çorum FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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