Çorum FK vs Göztepe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Çorum FK vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Göztepe travel to Corum Stadyumu to take on Çorum FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Çorum FK stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Çorum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Çorum FK have posted 2W 0D 3L at Corum Stadyumu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Göztepe have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Çorum FK 1.50 PPG, Göztepe 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Çorum FK have won 0, Göztepe 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Göztepe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Çorum FK in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Göztepe in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Çorum FK 54% and Göztepe 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Çorum FK 82% | Göztepe 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 1.17 xG and Göztepe 2.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.778 / defence 1.431 | Göztepe attack 1.414 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.316. Çorum FK's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Göztepe have an above-average attack strength of 1.414 — the away xG of 2.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Çorum FK games / 45 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Çorum FK 15% | Draw 16% | Göztepe 69%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 6.67 | Draw 6.25 | Göztepe 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (69%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 2.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 69% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Çorum FK 40% | Göztepe 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Çorum FK vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Corum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Çorum FK 15% | Draw 16% | Göztepe 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 64% | xG Çorum FK 1.17 / Göztepe 2.67 • Poisson strength factors: Çorum FK attack 0.778 / def 1.431 | Göztepe attack 1.414 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Çorum FK xG
Expected Goals
2.67
Göztepe xG
64%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Çorum FK vs Göztepe kick off?
Çorum FK vs Göztepe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Corum Stadyumu.
Where is Çorum FK vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Corum Stadyumu.
What competition is Çorum FK vs Göztepe part of?
Çorum FK vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Çorum FK vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Çorum FK a 15% chance of winning, Göztepe a 69% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Çorum FK vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Çorum FK and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Çorum FK vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Göztepe?
Record (1 meetings): Çorum FK 0W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 1W.
What form are Çorum FK and Göztepe in?
Çorum FK (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Göztepe (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Çorum FK's attack at 0.78x the league average against Göztepe's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Çorum FK's defence, projects 2.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (8.0%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
15%
6.89
16%
6.11
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
0 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Çorum FK xG
Total xG
3.84
2.67
Göztepe xG
6.89
15%
Home win
6.11
16%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
7%
14.37
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
1%
99.02
21%
4.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Çorum FK vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Çorum FK and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Çorum FK and 2.67 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Çorum FK vs Göztepe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Çorum FK come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 1D 5L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Çorum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Çorum FK on 1.45 PPG, Göztepe on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Çorum FK's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.36 PPG overall record — Göztepe travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Çorum FK are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 2.00 scored and 1.73 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Çorum FK
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Çorum FK and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Çorum FK have gone 5W 1D 5L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Çorum FK at home or Göztepe away?
Göztepe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Çorum FK at home: 1.20 PPG; Göztepe away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Çorum FK
0
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Göztepe?
From 1 meetings on record, Çorum FK have won 0, Göztepe have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Çorum FK and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Göztepe 2-0 Çorum FK.
Who has won more matches between Çorum FK and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Çorum FK 40%, Göztepe 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Çorum FK and 100% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Çorum FK have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Çorum FK home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Çorum FK play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Çorum FK's games and 80% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Çorum FK vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Çorum FK's matches and 100% of Göztepe's.
Do Çorum FK and Göztepe tend to score early?
Çorum FK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.