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Poisson model rates Çorum FK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Çorum FK host Eyüpspor at Corum Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Eyüpspor's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 1.42 xG and Eyüpspor 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Eyüpspor attack 1.007 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 0 Çorum FK games / 34 Eyüpspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Çorum FK 37% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Eyüpspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Çorum FK are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Çorum FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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