Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Çorum FK host Eyüpspor at Corum Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Çorum FK stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 Süper Lig matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: D L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Çorum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Eyüpspor — 1.07 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Çorum FK register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Eyüpspor in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Çorum FK in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Çorum FK 67% versus Eyüpspor 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Çorum FK 67% | Eyüpspor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 0.95 xG and Eyüpspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.691 / defence 1.097 | Eyüpspor attack 0.859 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Çorum FK's attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Çorum FK games / 37 Eyüpspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Çorum FK 30% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Eyüpspor 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Çorum FK 67% | Eyüpspor 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Corum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Çorum FK 30% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Çorum FK 0.95 / Eyüpspor 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Çorum FK attack 0.691 / def 1.097 | Eyüpspor attack 0.859 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Çorum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Eyüpspor xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at Corum Stadyumu.
Where is Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Corum Stadyumu.
What competition is Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor part of?
Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Çorum FK a 30% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Çorum FK and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Eyüpspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Çorum FK and Eyüpspor in?
Çorum FK (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-L-L. Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Çorum FK's attack rating (0.69) and Eyüpspor's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Çorum FK's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
30%
3.33
30%
3.36
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Çorum FK xG
Total xG
2.09
1.15
Eyüpspor xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 14.1 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Çorum FK and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Çorum FK and 1.15 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Çorum FK have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Çorum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eyüpspor's form line: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Eyüpspor are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Çorum FK.
The Goals Picture
Çorum FK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Çorum FK have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Çorum FK
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Çorum FK and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Çorum FK have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Çorum FK 67%, Eyüpspor 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Çorum FK) and 33% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Çorum FK have failed to score in 33% of games; Eyüpspor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Çorum FK home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Çorum FK play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Çorum FK's recent matches and 33% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Çorum FK's recent games and 33% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Çorum FK and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Çorum FK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.