Konyaspor 2-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 34% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Konyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig (matchday 31). Kick-off is Monday 27 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Konyaspor have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Konyaspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Trabzonspor — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Konyaspor) versus 2.30 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Trabzonspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Konyaspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Konyaspor 1–3 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Trabzonspor have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 62% and Trabzonspor 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Trabzonspor 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Konyaspor surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Trabzonspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.15 xG and Trabzonspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.919 / defence 0.811 | Trabzonspor attack 1.309 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.131. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack rating of 1.309, which lifts their away xG to 1.20. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 66 games and Trabzonspor's last 66.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.15 | Draw 2.95 | Trabzonspor 2.91. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 31 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Konyaspor 1.15 / Trabzonspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.919 / def 0.811 | Trabzonspor attack 1.309 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Trabzonspor xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 27 April 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Konyaspor 2 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 31) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 32% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Konyaspor and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.92) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 66 games and Trabzonspor's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
32%
3.15
34%
2.95
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.35
1.20
Trabzonspor xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.20 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 22W 17D 27L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 32W 20D 14L from 66 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 33 home games (14W 11D 8L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 13W 10D 10L from their last 33 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.74 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Trabzonspor in 61%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Konyaspor (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 22W 17D 27L in their last 66 games (1.26 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 32W 20D 14L in their last 66 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.61 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Konyaspor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
1
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 4, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 58%, Trabzonspor 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Konyaspor) and 52% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Konyaspor's games and 61% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Konyaspor and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Konyaspor's recent games and 52% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 64% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Trabzonspor 2-1 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.15 xG and Trabzonspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 0.81 against Trabzonspor attack 1.31 / defence 0.85, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 32% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 34%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Trabzonspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Konyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.