🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 46%, yet in-form Trabzonspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 26 as Konyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 March 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Konyaspor's home record at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Trabzonspor — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Konyaspor's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Trabzonspor have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Konyaspor.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Trabzonspor winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Trabzonspor have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 43% | Trabzonspor 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.66 xG and Trabzonspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.006 / defence 1.173 | Trabzonspor attack 0.892 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.191. Data: 62 Konyaspor games / 61 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 46% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Trabzonspor 3.57. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 70% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights