Konyaspor 0-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Sivasspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 11 December 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Konyaspor) versus 1.00 (Sivasspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Konyaspor, 2 for Sivasspor and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Sivasspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Sivasspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Sivasspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.56 xG and Sivasspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.806 / defence 0.958 | Sivasspor attack 1.001 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.258. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Konyaspor games / 50 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 45% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Sivasspor 3.45. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 70% | Sivasspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 11 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 45% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Konyaspor 1.56 / Sivasspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.806 / def 0.958 | Sivasspor attack 1.001 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sivasspor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 11 December 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Konyaspor 0 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 45% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Konyaspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
Record (4 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 2W.
What form are Konyaspor and Sivasspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.81x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.87
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.76
1.21
Sivasspor xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
6%
16.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.21 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 15W 20D 15L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 14W 14D 22L from 50 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.30 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (7W 10D 8L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 9W 2D 14L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 15W 20D 15L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 14W 14D 22L in their last 50 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.24 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
3
Draws
4
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Sivasspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sivasspor 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 56%, Sivasspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Konyaspor) and 72% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Konyaspor's games and 56% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Konyaspor's recent games and 72% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Konyaspor 0-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.56 xG and Sivasspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against Sivasspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.23, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 45% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 29%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Sivasspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Sivasspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.30 PPG, Sivasspor 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.