Konyaspor 1-3 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 2 November 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 6W 0D 4L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Samsunspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Konyaspor 2W, Samsunspor 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Samsunspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 65% versus Samsunspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 54% | Samsunspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.29 xG and Samsunspor 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.057 / defence 1.156 | Samsunspor attack 1.132 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.294. Data: 46 Konyaspor games / 46 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 27% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Samsunspor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 60% | Samsunspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 27% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Konyaspor 1.29 / Samsunspor 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.057 / def 1.156 | Samsunspor attack 1.132 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Samsunspor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 3 Samsunspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 27% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Konyaspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Samsunspor?
Record (4 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Samsunspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (1.06) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.13x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
27%
3.76
29%
3.44
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.98
1.69
Samsunspor xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
5%
20.44
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.69 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 9D 20L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.76 PPG from 46 outings (23W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Konyaspor's home form reads 11W 5D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.68 points per game from 22 outings (10W 7D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.50 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Samsunspor in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 17W 9D 20L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 23W 12D 11L in their last 46 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.73 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 59%, Samsunspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Konyaspor) and 54% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Samsunspor in 41%; Samsunspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 46% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Konyaspor's recent games and 54% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Konyaspor 1-3 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.29 xG and Samsunspor 1.69 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Samsunspor outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.16 against Samsunspor attack 1.13 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 27% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 44%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 54%, Samsunspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.