Konyaspor 1-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Rizespor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 6 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Konyaspor have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rizespor's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.00 for Rizespor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Konyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Rizespor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Konyaspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 64% and Rizespor 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 54% | Rizespor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.34 xG and Rizespor 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.955 / defence 1.091 | Rizespor attack 1.117 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.363. Data: 50 Konyaspor games / 50 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 29% | Draw 29% | Rizespor 42%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Rizespor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 70% | Rizespor 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights