Konyaspor 2-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rizespor's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Konyaspor. A 0.60 PPG lead over Rizespor (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 53% versus Rizespor 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 41% | Rizespor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.63 xG and Rizespor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.943 / defence 0.826 | Rizespor attack 0.857 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.215. Data: 71 Konyaspor games / 70 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 56% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 20%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Rizespor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Rizespor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 56% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Konyaspor 1.63 / Rizespor 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.943 / def 0.826 | Rizespor attack 0.857 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Rizespor xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Konyaspor 2 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Rizespor part of?
Konyaspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 56% chance of winning, Rizespor a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Konyaspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
Record (5 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Rizespor 2W.
What form are Konyaspor and Rizespor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.94) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.86x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 71/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
56%
1.80
25%
4.06
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.49
0.86
Rizespor xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
4%
25.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.86 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 21W 20D 29L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Rizespor's form line: 26W 12D 32L from 70 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.29 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.50 PPG from 34 outings (14W 9D 11L).
On the road, Rizespor have gone 8W 3D 23L from 34 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.23 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 21W 20D 29L in their last 70 games (1.19 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 26W 12D 32L in their last 70 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Rizespor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Rizespor go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
3
Draws
4
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
From 9 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Konyaspor 0-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 50%, Rizespor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Konyaspor) and 65% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Rizespor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Konyaspor's recent games and 65% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Rizespor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Rizespor 2-1 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.63 xG and Rizespor 0.86 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.83 against Rizespor attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 56% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 20%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 41%, Rizespor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.19 PPG, Rizespor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.