Konyaspor 1-2 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Pendikspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Pendikspor meet at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pendikspor have collected 0.50 PPG across 8 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.12 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pendikspor's away record: 0W 2D 2L from 4 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Konyaspor. A 0.60 PPG lead over Pendikspor (1.10 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Konyaspor register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Pendikspor in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Pendikspor half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 62% and Pendikspor 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Konyaspor 25% | Pendikspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.27 xG and Pendikspor 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.780 / defence 1.050 | Pendikspor attack 0.765 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.233. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Konyaspor games / 8 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 39% | Draw 36% | Pendikspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.56 | Draw 2.78 | Pendikspor 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Konyaspor 80% | Pendikspor 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 39% | Draw 36% | Pendikspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Konyaspor 1.27 / Pendikspor 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.780 / def 1.050 | Pendikspor attack 0.765 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Pendikspor xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Pendikspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Pendikspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 2 Pendikspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Pendikspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 25% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Konyaspor and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Pendikspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Pendikspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Pendikspor (all comps): 0W-4D-4L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.12 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.78x the league average against Pendikspor's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pendikspor's attack (0.77x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 44/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
39%
2.56
36%
2.81
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.26
0.99
Pendikspor xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
7%
13.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.99 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 2W 3D 3L from 8 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pendikspor, meanwhile, have gone 0W 4D 4L across 8 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Konyaspor by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pendikspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pendikspor's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.00 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Pendikspor in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Pendikspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 0W 4D 4L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Pendikspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Pendikspor away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
0
Draws
1
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Pendikspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Pendikspor 0-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 50%, Pendikspor 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Konyaspor) and 50% (Pendikspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Konyaspor's games and 75% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Konyaspor's recent games and 50% of Pendikspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pendikspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pendikspor beat Konyaspor 1-2 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.27 xG and Pendikspor 0.99 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pendikspor outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against Pendikspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 39% | Draw 36% | Pendikspor 25%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Pendikspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 25%, Pendikspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Pendikspor's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Pendikspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pendikspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.