Konyaspor 0-0 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kayserispor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Konyaspor. A 0.50 PPG lead over Kayserispor (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Konyaspor are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Konyaspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 51% versus Kayserispor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 44% | Kayserispor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.51 xG and Kayserispor 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.929 / defence 1.018 | Kayserispor attack 0.909 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.325. Data: 41 Konyaspor games / 39 Kayserispor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 42% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 29%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Kayserispor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Kayserispor 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 42% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Konyaspor 1.51 / Kayserispor 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.929 / def 1.018 | Kayserispor attack 0.909 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Kayserispor xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Konyaspor 0 - 0 Kayserispor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Konyaspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 42% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Konyaspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kayserispor?
Record (6 meetings): Konyaspor 4W | Draws 2 | Kayserispor 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Kayserispor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.93) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.91x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
The sample (41/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.51
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.73
1.23
Kayserispor xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
7%
15.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.23 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 10W 12D 17L from 39 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 16L across 39 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kayserispor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.15 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 6W 4D 9L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 5W 4D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.15 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Kayserispor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 10W 12D 17L in their last 39 games (1.08 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.16 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
4
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Kayserispor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Kayserispor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kayserispor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kayserispor see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 47%, Kayserispor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Konyaspor) and 58% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Kayserispor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 58% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Konyaspor's recent games and 58% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Konyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Kayserispor finished level at 0-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.51 xG and Kayserispor 1.23 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Kayserispor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Kayserispor attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 42% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 29%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 44%, Kayserispor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kayserispor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.08 PPG, Kayserispor 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.