Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 23 as Konyaspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kasımpaşa are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Konyaspor: 4 wins from 10 previous clashes against 0 for Kasımpaşa, with 6 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Konyaspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 53% versus Kasımpaşa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 49% | Kasımpaşa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 0.88 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.701 / defence 0.972 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.980 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.279. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kasımpaşa's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Konyaspor games / 45 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 27% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 44%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Kasımpaşa 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Konyaspor dominate the H2H record, yet Kasımpaşa are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 20% | Kasımpaşa 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 27% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Konyaspor 0.88 / Kasımpaşa 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.701 / def 0.972 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.980 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Kasımpaşa xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 27% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (10 meetings): Konyaspor 4W | Draws 6 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.70) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
27%
3.74
29%
3.40
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.10
1.22
Kasımpaşa xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.66
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 14.9 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.22 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 12W 12D 21L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 13W 16D 16L from 45 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.07 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 6D 10L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.11 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 12W 12D 21L in their last 45 games (1.07 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 13W 16D 16L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.35 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
6
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 44%, Kasımpaşa 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Konyaspor) and 56% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 61% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Konyaspor's recent games and 56% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.