Konyaspor 2-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Konyaspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Konyaspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kasımpaşa are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Konyaspor, 0 for Kasımpaşa and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2023, ended Konyaspor 2–1 Kasımpaşa — a Konyaspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Kasımpaşa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Kasımpaşa 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.16 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.776 / defence 1.070 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.122 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.222. Konyaspor's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 48 games and Kasımpaşa's last 48.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 28% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 43%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.54 | Draw 3.45 | Kasımpaşa 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 80% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 13 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 28% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Konyaspor 1.16 / Kasımpaşa 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.776 / def 1.070 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.122 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Kasımpaşa xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor 2 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 13) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 28% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.78) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 48 games and Kasımpaşa's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
28%
3.54
29%
3.45
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.62
1.47
Kasımpaşa xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
7%
15.38
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.47 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 14W 19D 15L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 17W 10D 21L from 48 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.27 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 23 home games (6W 9D 8L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 6D 10L from their last 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.38 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Konyaspor (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 14W 19D 15L in their last 48 games (1.27 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 17W 10D 21L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.17 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
6
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Kasımpaşa 0-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 61%, Kasımpaşa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Konyaspor) and 56% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 30%; Kasımpaşa in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 44% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Konyaspor's recent games and 56% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Kasımpaşa 2-0 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.16 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.47 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.07 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.12 / defence 1.00, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 28% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 43%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Kasımpaşa 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.27 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.