Konyaspor 2-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 13 as Konyaspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kasımpaşa are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Konyaspor, 0 for Kasımpaşa and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Kasımpaşa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Kasımpaşa 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.16 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.776 / defence 1.070 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.122 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.222. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Konyaspor games / 48 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 28% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 43%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Kasımpaşa 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 80% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 28% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Konyaspor 1.16 / Kasımpaşa 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.776 / def 1.070 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.122 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Kasımpaşa xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor 2 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 28% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (4 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 3 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.78) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
28%
3.54
29%
3.45
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.62
1.47
Kasımpaşa xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
7%
15.38
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.47 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 14W 19D 15L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 17W 10D 21L from 48 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.27 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (6W 9D 8L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 6D 10L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.38 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 14W 19D 15L in their last 48 games (1.27 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 17W 10D 21L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.17 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
6
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 61%, Kasımpaşa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Konyaspor) and 56% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 30%; Kasımpaşa in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 44% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Konyaspor's recent games and 56% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Kasımpaşa 2-0 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.16 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.47 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.07 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.12 / defence 1.00, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 28% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 43%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Kasımpaşa 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.27 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.