Konyaspor 1-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu to face Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Konyaspor's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Konyaspor, who have won 5 of the last 6 meetings against Hatayspor — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Konyaspor winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Konyaspor and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 51% versus Hatayspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 43% | Hatayspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.70 xG and Hatayspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.982 / defence 0.944 | Hatayspor attack 0.865 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.289. Data: 50 Konyaspor games / 49 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 51% | Draw 27% | Hatayspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Hatayspor 4.55. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 50% | Hatayspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 51% | Draw 27% | Hatayspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Konyaspor 1.70 / Hatayspor 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.982 / def 0.944 | Hatayspor attack 0.865 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Hatayspor xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 51% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Konyaspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Hatayspor?
Record (6 meetings): Konyaspor 5W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Hatayspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Konyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.98) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.86x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.70
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.75
1.05
Hatayspor xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
4%
24.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.05 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 13W 15D 21L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor's form line: 10W 17D 22L from 49 games, 0.96 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Konyaspor against 0.96 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 1W 8D 14L from 23 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hatayspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 13W 15D 21L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 10W 17D 22L in their last 49 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.30 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.48 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 0-3 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Konyaspor
1
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 6, Hatayspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Hatayspor 2-3 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Hatayspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 48%, Hatayspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Konyaspor) and 39% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Hatayspor in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 44% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Konyaspor's recent games and 39% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Hatayspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, as Konyaspor and Hatayspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.70 xG and Hatayspor 1.05 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Hatayspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 51% | Draw 27% | Hatayspor 22%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Hatayspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Hatayspor's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.10 PPG, Hatayspor 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.