Konyaspor 1-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Konyaspor face Gençlerbirliği S.K..

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Analysis

Gençlerbirliği S.K. make the trip to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium to face Konyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Konyaspor (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Konyaspor have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.00 for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Konyaspor, 0 for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Konyaspor 2–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K. — a Konyaspor win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Gençlerbirliği S.K. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 69% and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.23 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.890 / defence 0.890 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.625 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.183. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack rating of 0.625 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 62 games and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s last 26.

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 47% | Draw 36% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 17%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.12 | Draw 2.81 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 5.81. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50% (last 10 away games).

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