Konyaspor 2-0 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Galatasaray (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Konyaspor face Galatasaray.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Galatasaray in Süper Lig (matchday 23). Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Konyaspor have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Galatasaray (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Galatasaray have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, Galatasaray are the stronger side — 2.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Galatasaray, who have 6 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2025, ended Konyaspor 1–3 Galatasaray — a Galatasaray win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Galatasaray have won 6 of 8 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Galatasaray half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 66% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 66% and Galatasaray 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 52% | Galatasaray 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Konyaspor surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Galatasaray have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 80% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 0.78 xG and Galatasaray 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.795 / defence 0.942 | Galatasaray attack 1.397 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.317. Konyaspor's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Galatasaray bring a tight defence (rating 0.707, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Konyaspor's projected output down. Galatasaray have an above-average attack rating of 1.397, which lifts their away xG to 1.73. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 58 games and Galatasaray's last 58.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 13% | Draw 30% | Galatasaray 57%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 7.61 | Draw 3.34 | Galatasaray 1.76. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (57%) — a 27pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Galatasaray 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 13% | Draw 30% | Galatasaray 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Konyaspor 0.78 / Galatasaray 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.795 / def 0.942 | Galatasaray attack 1.397 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Galatasaray xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Galatasaray FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Galatasaray kick off?
Konyaspor vs Galatasaray kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Konyaspor 2 - 0 Galatasaray.
Where is Konyaspor vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Galatasaray part of?
Konyaspor vs Galatasaray is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 13% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 57% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Konyaspor and Galatasaray will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Konyaspor vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.80) and Galatasaray's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Galatasaray's attack (1.40x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 58 games and Galatasaray's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
13%
7.61
30%
3.34
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.51
1.73
Galatasaray xG
7.61
13%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
2%
43.06
26%
3.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Galatasaray Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.73 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 17W 15D 26L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Galatasaray's form line: 47W 9D 2L from 58 games, 2.59 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Galatasaray are the form team by 1.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.54 PPG from their last 28 home games (11W 10D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Galatasaray have gone 23W 3D 2L from their last 28 away games — 2.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 2.48 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Galatasaray in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Galatasaray
Blended
Konyaspor (Home) vs Galatasaray (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Blended
Galatasaray
Blended
❓ Konyaspor vs Galatasaray Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 17W 15D 26L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 47W 9D 2L in their last 58 (2.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.54 PPG; Galatasaray away: 2.57 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Konyaspor and Galatasaray, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won Konyaspor 0-4 Galatasaray on 30 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 3W 0D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Galatasaray — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
0
Draws
7
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Galatasaray H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Galatasaray?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 3, Galatasaray have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Galatasaray last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Konyaspor 0-4 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 61%, Galatasaray 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Konyaspor) and 64% (Galatasaray). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Galatasaray in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Galatasaray Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Galatasaray matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Konyaspor's games and 57% of Galatasaray's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Konyaspor and Galatasaray matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Konyaspor's matches and 64% of Galatasaray's.
Do Konyaspor and Galatasaray matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 82% of Galatasaray's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Galatasaray.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Galatasaray 2-0 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 0.78 xG and Galatasaray 1.73 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Galatasaray landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.80 / defence 0.94 against Galatasaray attack 1.40 / defence 0.71, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 13% | Draw 30% | Galatasaray 57%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Konyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 52%, Galatasaray 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Galatasaray's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.59 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Konyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.