Konyaspor 0-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 36%, yet the head-to-head data favours Fenerbahçe — this Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig (matchday 33). Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Fenerbahçe have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fenerbahçe away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Konyaspor, 1.80 for Fenerbahçe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have the stronger record — 6 wins to Konyaspor's 1, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2025, ended Konyaspor 0–4 Fenerbahçe — a Fenerbahçe win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 6 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 73%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 63% and Fenerbahçe 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 52% | Fenerbahçe 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Konyaspor surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Fenerbahçe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 73% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.41 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.981 / defence 0.819 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.423 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack rating of 1.423, which lifts their away xG to 1.29. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 68 games and Fenerbahçe's last 68.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 36% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 31%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.76 | Draw 3.04 | Fenerbahçe 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Fenerbahçe 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 33 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 36% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Konyaspor 1.41 / Fenerbahçe 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.981 / def 0.819 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.423 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Fenerbahçe xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Konyaspor 0 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 33) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.98) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.42x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 68 games and Fenerbahçe's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
36%
2.76
33%
3.04
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.71
1.29
Fenerbahçe xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
7%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.29 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 23W 17D 28L from 68 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 46W 16D 6L across 68 games — 2.26 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Konyaspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 15W 11D 8L from their last 34 home games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 21W 9D 4L across their last 34 away games, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.37 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
Konyaspor (Home) vs Fenerbahçe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 23W 17D 28L in their last 68 games (1.26 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 46W 16D 6L in their last 68 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.65 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Fenerbahçe have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 7-1 Konyaspor on 10 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
1
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Fenerbahçe 4-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 59%, Fenerbahçe 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Konyaspor) and 65% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Konyaspor's games and 56% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Konyaspor's matches and 65% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 79% of Fenerbahçe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Konyaspor 0-3 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.41 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.29 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.42 / defence 0.98, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 36% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 31%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Fenerbahçe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 52%, Fenerbahçe 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.