Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 49%, yet in-form Erzurumspor FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Erzurumspor FK make the trip to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium to face Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Konyaspor have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Erzurumspor FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 3L from 8 games (1.38 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.62 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 12% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Erzurumspor FK have posted 0W 2D 2L from 4 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.38 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Erzurumspor FK are the stronger side — 0.88 PPG clear of the hosts (1.38 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Konyaspor have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Erzurumspor FK in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Konyaspor 0W, Erzurumspor FK 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–1 with Erzurumspor FK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Erzurumspor FK — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Konyaspor 25% | Erzurumspor FK 12%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Konyaspor 25% | Erzurumspor FK 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.16 xG and Erzurumspor FK 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.708 / defence 0.838 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.603 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Konyaspor games / 8 Erzurumspor FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 49% | Draw 31% | Erzurumspor FK 19%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Erzurumspor FK 5.26. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Erzurumspor FK's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Erzurumspor FK (1.38 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 30% | Erzurumspor FK 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 49% | Draw 31% | Erzurumspor FK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 31% | xG Konyaspor 1.16 / Erzurumspor FK 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.708 / def 0.838 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.603 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Erzurumspor FK xG
31%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK kick off?
Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK part of?
Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 49% chance of winning, Erzurumspor FK a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Erzurumspor FK 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.71) and Erzurumspor FK's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Erzurumspor FK's attack (0.60x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.4%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
49%
2.02
31%
3.18
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
1.76
0.60
Erzurumspor FK xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.23
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
6%
16.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.60 for Erzurumspor FK, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 2D 5L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Erzurumspor FK sit at 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Erzurumspor FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Erzurumspor FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Konyaspor's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Erzurumspor FK have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Erzurumspor FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Erzurumspor FK are on 0.62 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Erzurumspor FK in 12%.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Erzurumspor FK in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Erzurumspor FK have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Erzurumspor FK away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Erzurumspor FK away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Erzurumspor FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Erzurumspor FK in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Konyaspor
0
Draws
1
Erzurumspor FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK?
From 1 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 0, Erzurumspor FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK?
Erzurumspor FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Erzurumspor FK tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Konyaspor) and 25% (Erzurumspor FK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Konyaspor) and 50% (Erzurumspor FK).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 50% of games; Erzurumspor FK in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Erzurumspor FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Erzurumspor FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 25% of Erzurumspor FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Konyaspor's recent games and 50% of Erzurumspor FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Erzurumspor FK in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.