Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Erzurumspor FK make the trip to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium to face Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Konyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Erzurumspor FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.67 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Erzurumspor FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.67 in Konyaspor's favour (1.00 vs 0.33) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Erzurumspor FK — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 67% versus Erzurumspor FK 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Konyaspor 67% | Erzurumspor FK 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.42 xG and Erzurumspor FK 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.816 / defence 1.053 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.728 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Data: 37 Konyaspor games / 3 Erzurumspor FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 48% | Draw 27% | Erzurumspor FK 25%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Erzurumspor FK 4.00. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 40% | Erzurumspor FK 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 48% | Draw 27% | Erzurumspor FK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Konyaspor 1.42 / Erzurumspor FK 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.816 / def 1.053 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.728 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Erzurumspor FK xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK kick off?
Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK part of?
Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 48% chance of winning, Erzurumspor FK a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.82) and Erzurumspor FK's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Erzurumspor FK's attack (0.73x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.71
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.35
0.93
Erzurumspor FK xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.93 for Erzurumspor FK, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 0D 3L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Erzurumspor FK sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Konyaspor against 0.33 for Erzurumspor FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Erzurumspor FK are on 0.33 scored and 2.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Erzurumspor FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Erzurumspor FK have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Erzurumspor FK see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 67%, Erzurumspor FK 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Konyaspor and 67% for Erzurumspor FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Erzurumspor FK in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Erzurumspor FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Erzurumspor FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 33% of Erzurumspor FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Konyaspor's matches and 67% of Erzurumspor FK's.
Do Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Erzurumspor FK in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.