Konyaspor 0-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Beşiktaş meet at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 October 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 7W 0D 3L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Beşiktaş arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 2W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Konyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 66% and Beşiktaş 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 54% | Beşiktaş 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.46 xG and Beşiktaş 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.138 / defence 1.103 | Beşiktaş attack 1.088 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.310. Data: 44 Konyaspor games / 44 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 34% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 39%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Beşiktaş 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 60% | Beşiktaş 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 34% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Konyaspor 1.46 / Beşiktaş 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.138 / def 1.103 | Beşiktaş attack 1.088 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Beşiktaş xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 October 2025 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Konyaspor 0 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 34% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Konyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (8 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 2 | Beşiktaş 4W.
What form are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 1.14x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.09x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.60
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
3.03
1.57
Beşiktaş xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
7%
14.34
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.57 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 16W 9D 19L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 21W 12D 11L from 44 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.70 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.73 PPG from 22 outings (11W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 7W 10D 5L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.64 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Beşiktaş in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 16W 9D 19L in their last 44 games (1.30 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 21W 12D 11L in their last 44 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.73 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 64%, Beşiktaş 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Konyaspor) and 32% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Konyaspor's games and 54% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Konyaspor's recent games and 32% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Konyaspor 0-2 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.46 xG and Beşiktaş 1.57 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.10 against Beşiktaş attack 1.09 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 34% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 39%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 54%, Beşiktaş 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.30 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.