Konyaspor 2-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Başakşehir at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 7W 0D 3L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Konyaspor 1.30 PPG, Başakşehir 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Konyaspor, 4 for Başakşehir and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 63% versus Başakşehir 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 54% | Başakşehir 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.46 xG and Başakşehir 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.100 / defence 0.928 | Başakşehir attack 1.057 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.261. Data: 41 Konyaspor games / 41 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 30%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Başakşehir 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 40% | Başakşehir 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Konyaspor 1.46 / Başakşehir 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.100 / def 0.928 | Başakşehir attack 1.057 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Başakşehir xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Konyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Konyaspor 2 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Konyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 40% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Konyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
Record (8 meetings): Konyaspor 3W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 4W.
What form are Konyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Konyaspor's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
40%
2.50
30%
3.34
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.69
1.24
Başakşehir xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
7%
14.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.24 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 15W 8D 18L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Başakşehir's form line: 17W 9D 15L from 41 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.29 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (10W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 8W 2D 10L from 20 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.59 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 17W 9D 15L in their last 41 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.75 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Başakşehir runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Konyaspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
1
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Başakşehir have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 60%, Başakşehir 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Konyaspor) and 55% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Konyaspor's games and 55% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Konyaspor's matches and 55% of Başakşehir's.
Do Konyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Başakşehir 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Başakşehir 2-1 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.46 xG and Başakşehir 1.24 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Başakşehir attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 40% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 30%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 54%, Başakşehir 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.29 PPG, Başakşehir 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.