Konyaspor 1-0 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Konyaspor welcome Ankaragücü to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Ankaragücü — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ankaragücü have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Konyaspor at 0.80 PPG versus Ankaragücü's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Konyaspor, 1 for Ankaragücü and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Konyaspor trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Ankaragücü trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 55% versus Ankaragücü 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 47% | Ankaragücü 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.18 xG and Ankaragücü 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.876 / defence 1.052 | Ankaragücü attack 1.013 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.166. Data: 60 Konyaspor games / 60 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 33% | Ankaragücü 35%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Ankaragücü 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ankaragücü as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ankaragücü offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 50% | Ankaragücü 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 33% | Ankaragücü 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Konyaspor 1.18 / Ankaragücü 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.876 / def 1.052 | Ankaragücü attack 1.013 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Ankaragücü xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Ankaragücü.
Where is Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü part of?
Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 32% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Konyaspor and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Ankaragücü?
Record (3 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 2 | Ankaragücü 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Ankaragücü in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Ankaragücü (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.88x the league average against Ankaragücü's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
32%
3.11
33%
3.06
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.42
1.24
Ankaragücü xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.24 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 16W 25D 19L from 60 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ankaragücü, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 25L across 60 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.22 PPG, Ankaragücü on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 8W 11D 10L from 29 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ankaragücü's away record stands at 8W 7D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.22 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 16W 25D 19L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Ankaragücü away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.21 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Konyaspor's record when hosting Ankaragücü specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
2
Draws
1
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Ankaragücü?
From 4 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Ankaragücü have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Konyaspor 1-0 Ankaragücü.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 55%, Ankaragücü 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Konyaspor) and 52% (Ankaragücü).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Ankaragücü?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Konyaspor's games and 69% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Konyaspor's recent games and 52% of Ankaragücü's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Ankaragücü tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Ankaragücü in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Ankaragücü 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Ankaragücü 1-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.18 xG and Ankaragücü 1.24 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ankaragücü landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.05 against Ankaragücü attack 1.01 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 32% | Draw 33% | Ankaragücü 35%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 47%, Ankaragücü 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.22 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.