Konyaspor vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 46%, yet in-form Amed provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Amed in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Konyaspor have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Amed's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 1L from 8 games (2.12 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Amed have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 2.12 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Amed are the stronger side — 1.62 PPG clear of the hosts (2.12 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 0–1 with Amed winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 62% of games.
Amed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 25% versus Amed 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 25% | Amed 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.38 xG and Amed 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.709 / defence 0.842 | Amed attack 0.995 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Konyaspor games / 8 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 46% | Draw 27% | Amed 27%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Amed 3.70. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amed (2.12 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 30% | Amed 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 46% | Draw 27% | Amed 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Konyaspor 1.38 / Amed 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.709 / def 0.842 | Amed attack 0.995 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Amed xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Amed kick off?
Konyaspor vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Amed being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Amed part of?
Konyaspor vs Amed is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 46% chance of winning, Amed a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Konyaspor and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Amed?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Amed 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Amed in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Amed (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.12 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.71x the league average against Amed's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amed's attack (0.99x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.67
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.36
0.98
Amed xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
7%
14.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.98 for Amed, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Amed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 1W 2D 5L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amed's form line: 5W 2D 1L from 8 games, 2.12 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Amed are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.62 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Amed have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amed's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 2.25 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Amed in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Amed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Amed in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Amed have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Amed away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.33 PPG; Amed away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Amed in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Konyaspor
0
Draws
1
Amed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Amed?
From 1 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 0, Amed have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Amed last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Amed 1-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Amed?
Amed have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 33%, Amed 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Konyaspor) and 67% (Amed).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Amed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 67% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Konyaspor's recent games and 67% of Amed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Amed tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Amed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.