🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Konyaspor host Alanyaspor at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Konyaspor — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Alanyaspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Konyaspor at 1.90 PPG versus Alanyaspor's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Alanyaspor, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Konyaspor.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Alanyaspor winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Alanyaspor have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Konyaspor in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 62% versus Alanyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 51% | Alanyaspor 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.72 xG and Alanyaspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.164 / defence 0.823 | Alanyaspor attack 0.931 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.299. Data: 39 Konyaspor games / 39 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Alanyaspor 4.76. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 40% | Alanyaspor 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights