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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.

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Match Analysis

Konyaspor host Alanyaspor at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Konyaspor — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Alanyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Konyaspor have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Konyaspor, 3 for Alanyaspor and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Alanyaspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Konyaspor in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 54% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 42% | Alanyaspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.59 xG and Alanyaspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.959 / defence 0.828 | Alanyaspor attack 0.913 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.257. Data: 72 Konyaspor games / 72 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 52% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Alanyaspor 4.55. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Alanyaspor lead the H2H ledger, but Konyaspor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Alanyaspor 60%.

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