Konyaspor 1-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Alanyaspor at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 25 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Konyaspor — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Alanyaspor have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Alanyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Konyaspor have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Konyaspor, 3 for Alanyaspor and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2025, ended Konyaspor 1–2 Alanyaspor — a Alanyaspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 54% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 42% | Alanyaspor 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Konyaspor surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Alanyaspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.59 xG and Alanyaspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.959 / defence 0.828 | Alanyaspor attack 0.913 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.257. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 72 games and Alanyaspor's last 72.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 52% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.92 | Draw 3.92 | Alanyaspor 4.46. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 37 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 52% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Konyaspor 1.59 / Alanyaspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.959 / def 0.828 | Alanyaspor attack 0.913 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Alanyaspor xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 37) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 52% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Konyaspor and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.96x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 72 games and Alanyaspor's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.92
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.54
0.95
Alanyaspor xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
5%
21.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.95 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Konyaspor come into this having played 72 games, going 22W 21D 29L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.26 PPG from 72 outings (22W 25D 25L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.21 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Konyaspor's home form reads 15W 10D 11L across their last 36 home games, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 36 away games (8W 12D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.28 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Konyaspor (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 22W 21D 29L in their last 72 games (1.21 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 22W 25D 25L in their last 72 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.53 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alanyaspor have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won Alanyaspor 5-1 Konyaspor.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
3
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 58% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 53%, Alanyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Konyaspor) and 42% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Konyaspor's recent games and 42% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 67% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Konyaspor 1-2 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.59 xG and Alanyaspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.83 against Alanyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 52% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 22%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 42%, Alanyaspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.21 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.