Konyaspor 0-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Alanyaspor at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Konyaspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Alanyaspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Konyaspor at 1.50 PPG versus Alanyaspor's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Alanyaspor and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 53% versus Alanyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 44% | Alanyaspor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.25 xG and Alanyaspor 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.939 / defence 1.108 | Alanyaspor attack 1.099 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.234. Data: 68 Konyaspor games / 68 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 30% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Alanyaspor 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 50% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 30% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Konyaspor 1.25 / Alanyaspor 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.939 / def 1.108 | Alanyaspor attack 1.099 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Alanyaspor xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Konyaspor 0 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 30% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Konyaspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 3 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.94x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
30%
3.39
29%
3.40
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.75
1.50
Alanyaspor xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
7%
15.20
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.50 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Konyaspor come into this having played 68 games, going 20W 27D 21L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.22 PPG from 68 outings (21W 20D 27L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.28 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Konyaspor's home form reads 10W 12D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.85 points per game from 33 outings (6W 10D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.40 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 20W 27D 21L in their last 68 games (1.28 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 21W 20D 27L in their last 68 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.27 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alanyaspor go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
3
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 54%, Alanyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Konyaspor) and 64% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 54% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Konyaspor's recent games and 64% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Konyaspor 0-2 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.25 xG and Alanyaspor 1.50 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Alanyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 0.92, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 30% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 41%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 44%, Alanyaspor 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.28 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.