Konyaspor 3-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu to face Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Konyaspor's home record at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Adana Demirspor's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Konyaspor's 1.60 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Konyaspor, 2 for Adana Demirspor and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Konyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 53% versus Adana Demirspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 41% | Adana Demirspor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 2.34 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.902 / defence 0.819 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.911 / defence 1.618. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.176. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.618 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Konyaspor games / 68 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 70% | Draw 18% | Adana Demirspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Adana Demirspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 50% | Adana Demirspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 70% | Draw 18% | Adana Demirspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 53% | xG Konyaspor 2.34 / Adana Demirspor 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.902 / def 0.819 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.911 / def 1.618 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Adana Demirspor xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Konyaspor 3 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 70% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (7 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 3 | Adana Demirspor 2W.
What form are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.34. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.91x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 69/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.70
12%
8.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
3.22
0.88
Adana Demirspor xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.70
18%
Draw
8.06
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
10%
10.40
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
1%
83.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.88 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 20W 20D 28L from 68 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 12W 18D 38L across 68 games — 0.79 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Konyaspor against 0.79 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 13W 9D 11L from 33 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 2W 11D 20L across 33 trips, a 0.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.18 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 20W 20D 28L in their last 68 games (1.18 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 18D 38L in their last 68 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.45 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Konyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
3
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Konyaspor 3-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 48%, Adana Demirspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Konyaspor) and 61% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Konyaspor's games and 64% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Konyaspor's recent games and 61% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Adana Demirspor 3-1 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 2.34 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.88 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.82 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.62, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 70% | Draw 18% | Adana Demirspor 12%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 41%, Adana Demirspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.18 PPG, Adana Demirspor 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.